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10 EV predictions for 2010
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Written on: 01 January 2010 [21:41]
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ecoadmin
Administrator
Topic creator
registered since: 20.07.2007
Posts: 504
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I have found 10 predictions made public by Pike Research (John Gartner and Clint Wheelock). The following ten predictions are shortened in text. The full text version can be found on www.pikeresearch.com (login required). A full version is available at http://www.evwind.es/noticias.php?id_not=3051 Here we go... 1. The cost of owning and driving an electric vehicle is not likely to be cheaper than using gasoline. Cont... 2. 2012 will be a critical year for the commercialization of EVs and plug-ins. The Obama administration and governments in Europe and Asia have provided significant financial support for the launch of mass market PHEVs and EVs. Billions of dollars in grants to automakers and battery companies to build or retrofit manufacturing plants have reduced the cost of the vehicles and have provided OEMs with greater flexibility in pricing. Cont... 3. Despite the arrival of PHEVs, the hybrid market will continue to grow by adding a greater variety of subcategories, from micro hybrids to hybrids+. Cont... 4. The plug-in hybrids of 2020 may not resemble the plug-ins of 2010. A plug-in hybrid can be designed to provide sufficient battery storage to enable the majority of consumers to complete their daily driving on battery power alone on most days. Due to estimates that vehicle owners drive 13,000 miles per year, automakers designed many of the first wave of PHEVs with the ability to travel 30 miles or more on electric power only. Cont... 5. The Li-ion batteries sold with the first EVs may have little to no resale value. Automakers agree that for PHEV/EVs to become mass market transportation, the cost of batteries must rapidly fall to $300 per kWh or less. But a quick decline in the cost of energy storage will hamper the ability to resell batteries sold in 2010-2011 at the end of their useful life. Pike Research estimates that the cost of Li-ion batteries will fall by more than half to $470 per kWh by 2015. By then, auto OEMs will be able to price plug-in vehicles more competitively with conventional models. Cont... 6. Asia will be the dominant supplier and consumer of EVs and batteries. Cont... 7. Battery swapping is not likely to be a significant industry. Cont... 8. Operating commercial EV charging stations will not be a very significant or profitable industry. Cont... 9. The grid as a whole will accommodate and even benefit from EV charging, but some neighborhoods with multiple EVs could overwhelm transformers. Cont.... 10. Vehicle to Grid services will be minimal in 2015 and beyond. Cont... Agree? ecocarforum.com - Green Car Network
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Written on: 07 January 2010 [00:35]
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childress
Administrator
registered since: 14.08.2007
Posts: 131
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ecoadmin wrote: 1. The cost of owning and driving an electric vehicle is not likely to be cheaper than using gasoline. Cont... Gartner & Wheelock's major arguement here is what EV owners already know: telling people that you 'fillup' for pennies without mentioning the cost of the battery replacement is a snow-job/half-truth. Batteries, as an item that are 'consumed' have always been a fuel cost in my book. Following that logic, saying that gasoline only costs US$3.00 or US$5.00 a gallon is also a half-truth -- in the US we pay a HUGE amount in overhead to secure access to the 2/3rds of the oil/gas we import. I think that in all fairness should be calculated in (soldiering, navy'ing', Department of War, etc) It all depends on where you start your cost analysis from and what you include -- the gas pump? The oil field? The coal/uranium mine? So one could argue that there's a "real dollars cost to the individual" versus my "real cost to society" and I'd be fine with that. However, I'd counter that an appropriately-sized EV is cheaper and will out perform an inapropriately sized gasoline vehicle. Many states in the US now have a low-speed electric bicycle law. No tax, title, license, insurance or parking fees. If you moved from a full-sized car to this as a form of commuting... It seems that they've over simplified/generalized and made a lot of assumptions/neglected a lot of data in order to make their statement. They've neglected the lessons learned from the Prius (battery replacement prices dropped, and Detroit -- who downplayed the importance of the Hybrid -- got burned). Commute suck? Twike it; You'll like it!
http://www.uiuc.edu/goto/twike |
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Written on: 07 January 2010 [18:47]
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iamian
 
registered since: 23.02.2009
Posts: 105
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ecoadmin wrote: 1. The cost of owning and driving an electric vehicle is not likely to be cheaper than using gasoline. Cont... depends on what costs you include and don't include ... but, EVs cost less to operate than a comparably performing ICE no matter how you slice it... to the individual and to the society. The only part of the cost question in question is the initial cost difference... The well designed EV battery pack will have a longer service life than the average vehicle is owned... thus battery replacement is about as cost significant as engine replacement is... just like engine replacement some people do it ... but on the whole most do not. If people actually cared about what was cost effective ... there would be no TVs sold and no TV networks ... no Movies ... no professional sports ... etc. People don't really care about cost effective ... they just care about being able to buy what they want to buy... EV is a vehicle feature ... like leather seats and navigation systems some people want it and will pay to get it and others don't. ecoadmin wrote: 2. 2012 will be a critical year for the commercialization of EVs and plug-ins. The Obama administration and governments in Europe and Asia have provided significant financial support for the launch of mass market PHEVs and EVs. Billions of dollars in grants to automakers and battery companies to build or retrofit manufacturing plants have reduced the cost of the vehicles and have provided OEMs with greater flexibility in pricing. Cont... There is never a truly 'critical' year .... just like the miracle battery never comes. Progress is steady.... claims to the contrary are just hype. ecoadmin wrote: 3. Despite the arrival of PHEVs, the hybrid market will continue to grow by adding a greater variety of subcategories, from micro hybrids to hybrids+. Cont... Agreed ... eventually I see traditional ICEs fading away completely ... they will become as small of a niche market as EVs were in the 90's.... but that will take ~20 years or more to get there. ecoadmin wrote: 4. The plug-in hybrids of 2020 may not resemble the plug-ins of 2010. A plug-in hybrid can be designed to provide sufficient battery storage to enable the majority of consumers to complete their daily driving on battery power alone on most days. Due to estimates that vehicle owners drive 13,000 miles per year, automakers designed many of the first wave of PHEVs with the ability to travel 30 miles or more on electric power only. Cont... Agreed there will be variety. ecoadmin wrote: 5. The Li-ion batteries sold with the first EVs may have little to no resale value. Automakers agree that for PHEV/EVs to become mass market transportation, the cost of batteries must rapidly fall to $300 per kWh or less. But a quick decline in the cost of energy storage will hamper the ability to resell batteries sold in 2010-2011 at the end of their useful life. Pike Research estimates that the cost of Li-ion batteries will fall by more than half to $470 per kWh by 2015. By then, auto OEMs will be able to price plug-in vehicles more competitively with conventional models. Cont... Current LiFePHO4 batteries can be had for ~$400 / kwh ... the idea that they will be more expensive than they are now 5 years from now in 2015 ... even to large volume purchasers like OEMs... doesn't make any sense at all. This also assumes the average service life of a battery pack will be significantly less than the average service life of the vehicle ... which also does not seem to me to be correct. There are Rav4EVs still on the road with original EV battery packs ... they should be able to do equally as well if not better with newer / better technology. In short resale value of the battery pack almost doesn't matter ... Also Batteries do not just die like other automotive things ... they usually fade away ... with less and less Ah of storage over time ... A battery pack that puts out less Ah of storage is not unusable like a broken ICE is. This also assumes recycling batteries will be more expensive and energy intensive than building them new from raw materials ... which is also incorrect ... the more EV batteries are put on the market the cheaper the battery disposal / recycling becomes ... the more recycling is done the better they get at it ... if they aren't there already today ... I don't think it is very far off for recycling to be a net benefit like it already is for Paper and others. ecoadmin wrote: 6. Asia will be the dominant supplier and consumer of EVs and batteries. Cont... useless be pass a law about importing from countries without our environmental and labor laws... I don't see it happening... but that would change the field. ecoadmin wrote: 7. Battery swapping is not likely to be a significant industry. Cont... Not in the sense of battery swap instead of charging ... but modular battery packs that are easy to assemble , service , etc... will come for vehicle production , and vehicle servicing. ecoadmin wrote: 8. Operating commercial EV charging stations will not be a very significant or profitable industry. Cont... Everywhere except in large cities. In large cities I see eventually like 20+ years from now that being as common as paid parking lots. ecoadmin wrote: 9. The grid as a whole will accommodate and even benefit from EV charging, but some neighborhoods with multiple EVs could overwhelm transformers. Cont.... The concept of the overwhelmed transformers is wrong... the electric grid does not work that way. ecoadmin wrote: 10. Vehicle to Grid services will be minimal in 2015 and beyond. Cont... Agreed... I expect 30+ years before significant V2G penetration. 2000 MT Honda Insight
MIMA & FAS equipped ... PHEV in progress. Franken E-Bike 36V NiMH 600W Hub-Motor. |
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Written on: 09 January 2010 [15:57]
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ecoadmin
Administrator
Topic creator
registered since: 20.07.2007
Posts: 504
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Thanks guys for your own assessment of those ten points. Like childress explained, I also think they omitted a few things which should be included in the study as well. I see it all too often that the picture drawn by media, politicians, people and car manufacturers is often incomplete and does not include major points. We are far too often still thinking too shortsighted. ecocarforum.com - Green Car Network
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